Wednesday, May 10, 2006

Swing Swing Swing

God damn. I had gotten even for the month, after the debacle of the first week, and am now significantly stuck again today. These swings are so big! Gah! What is the deal? I've been thinking a lot about the variance in this game and I think there are three culprits:

1) It's common to play a big pot in which you have a slight edge going into the last draw. For example, you might have J8632 against an opponent with 7432x or you might have 96432 against one opponent with 7652x and another with 8432x. Most sessions you should break about even in these situations but if you win or lose a lot of them, your short-term results are going to reflect it.

2) There are times in this game in which two people make very strong hands at the same time. These pots are usually enormous and a lot of times the guy with the losing hand is putting in a lot of raises. For example if you have 86432 with one draw to come and someone bets into you with a third person still drawing in the hand, you must raise even if the bettor will show up with a wheel from time to time. If you're on the wrong end of a lot of these spots in your session, it's going to be a rough one. If people are making sevens when you have wheels and the guy with 8432 is calling all raises, it's going to be a good day.

3) On top of the fact that triple draw is a notoriously aggressive, gambling game with big pots, the particular people who have been playing in the game lately make it super super aggressive. I know we're playing 300-600, but it's playing much bigger these days.


Anonymous other1 said...

I've been railing the TD game for the last couple of days and have seen you make 20k swings in both directions. I don't know how you stand it. If I'm stuck $50 for a session (online) I'm sick to my stomach.

12:08 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am a relatively late reader to your blog but from your comments about running badly over the past few weeks I wondered if you realized how high the variance of TD is.

Very small edges are the nature of the game. I don't know anyone who has studied it but from my experience and intution I think it has a higher variance than any other commonly played game except maybe PLO.

For that matter poker in general is just a high variance game. If you are playing reasonably tough games (and you are), 100 big bet swings should not be all that rare. It happens in LHE a lot.

Or maybe you're talking about bigger swings than I realize (e.g. 300+ BB.)

8:46 PM  
Blogger Chris Fargis said...

Yes, I am aware that triple draw in specific and poker in general involve variance.

9:28 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lol... sorry to sound patronizing. But I meant *high* variance.

I mean are we talking 60k swings? Everyone I know on UB has several of those a month. The stoxter dropped over 180k at one point I believe.

9:43 PM  
Blogger Chris Fargis said...

For various reasons, I don't like to talk about how much I win or lose on this blog. The swings I've seen recently are within the bounds of normal variance. That doesn't mean it isn't a lot of money...

10:35 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhh!!!...The normal variance of my losing sessions is costing me a lot of money!!!

2:17 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Finally got to watch you play TD yesterday around 6:00 EST on UB. Crap, you're right about variance. I think you hit a high of 40K, before things went sour and you were down to 17K. Tough luck. Hope things turned around for you later on in the evening. If not, then you'll get 'em next time.

10:35 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with item 1 in your list of reasons for variance in TD. There are just so many situations where one is in basic race situations on the last draw. If you lose more than your fair share in a particular session, it's going to be painful. Then if you beginning folding hands you shouldn't it can snowball.

I had a 110 BB downswing at 10-20 last week. I went over my hand histories and marked up the 50-50 situations (made nines with two to go and jacks with one to go). I lost 85% of those. That would be a stat to keep when "Triple Draw Tracker" is written.

2:17 AM  

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