UB Hand
Here's a hand I just played on UB in a satellite for the WSOP Main Event. I'm interested to hear what strategy you all like here:
240 or so entrants. 2 seats and a little cash for places 3-6. About 150 players left with blinds 30/60. I have about 3000 left and limp UTG with AsJs. There's a raise to 120, a late position player cold-calls, the blinds fold, and I call. I don't have much of a read on either opponent. The flop is KsTh9s. There is 450 in the pot and I have 2880 left. At this point I have at least three options:
a) Check with the intention of calling.
b) Check with the intention of raising.
c) Bet with the intention of raising all-in if I get raised.
I really don't think folding on the flop is an option here. Even if one guy were to bet and the other were to raise all-in, I would call. Without cheating, estimate my equity against the following hypothetical hands:
1) QJ and TT
2) AK and TT
3) AK and T9
4) Just AK
5) Just TT
6) Just QJ
Don't cheat!
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Answers:
1) 31%
2) 35%
3) 41%
4) 47%
5) 34%
6) 43% !
I was especially surprised at the last one. Even if someone flopped the nuts, I'm less than a 3-2 dog. What is this, PLO? Obviously I'm a favorite against a lot of other possible hands that I didn't mention like KQ, QT, JJ, etc. that people might put money in with on this flop. The hands I calculated were worst-case scenarios and as you can see, with the exception of someone flopping a set, they're not that bad.
As you may be able to predict, I chose option c, bet with the intention of getting it all-in on the flop if someone raises me. I bet 300 into the 450 pot, the initial raiser folded, the other guy made it 600, and I moved in for 2880. He called with AK and I didn't improve.
I could write a bunch more on this hand and my motivation for playing it this way, but I'm curious to hear what everyone thinks. Ok guys, the floor is open to you...
240 or so entrants. 2 seats and a little cash for places 3-6. About 150 players left with blinds 30/60. I have about 3000 left and limp UTG with AsJs. There's a raise to 120, a late position player cold-calls, the blinds fold, and I call. I don't have much of a read on either opponent. The flop is KsTh9s. There is 450 in the pot and I have 2880 left. At this point I have at least three options:
a) Check with the intention of calling.
b) Check with the intention of raising.
c) Bet with the intention of raising all-in if I get raised.
I really don't think folding on the flop is an option here. Even if one guy were to bet and the other were to raise all-in, I would call. Without cheating, estimate my equity against the following hypothetical hands:
1) QJ and TT
2) AK and TT
3) AK and T9
4) Just AK
5) Just TT
6) Just QJ
Don't cheat!
...
...
...
Answers:
1) 31%
2) 35%
3) 41%
4) 47%
5) 34%
6) 43% !
I was especially surprised at the last one. Even if someone flopped the nuts, I'm less than a 3-2 dog. What is this, PLO? Obviously I'm a favorite against a lot of other possible hands that I didn't mention like KQ, QT, JJ, etc. that people might put money in with on this flop. The hands I calculated were worst-case scenarios and as you can see, with the exception of someone flopping a set, they're not that bad.
As you may be able to predict, I chose option c, bet with the intention of getting it all-in on the flop if someone raises me. I bet 300 into the 450 pot, the initial raiser folded, the other guy made it 600, and I moved in for 2880. He called with AK and I didn't improve.
I could write a bunch more on this hand and my motivation for playing it this way, but I'm curious to hear what everyone thinks. Ok guys, the floor is open to you...
posted by Chris Fargis at 11:55 PM
5 Comments:
My 2 cents.....
if you believe that ur opponent has one of the hands that u have listed just call and make a decision on the turn. If he has one of the hands u listed, there is no way he will fold you might as well make the big raise on the turn.
However, if you think there is a good chance that he doesn't have that... your raise is perfect.
Part of a recent thread over at Livejournal dealt with pot odds and tournaments and especially when you want to put all your chips in. Do you put them in on coinflips, etc.
With blinds at 30/60 and a lot of chips do you really have to put them all-in here? I imagine it might be possible to see the river for cheap with the way raiser played the flop.
It is however a satellite tournament, so I suppose you are the kind of player would rather double up here 47% of the time or go do something else.
shunny from LJ
I like the check-raise option here. The hands that you listed would probably call, but you may get a lot of other hands to bluff/fold or make a weak play and then fold here. A bet would be around 400-600 I presume, and your reraise all-in would look scary to pretty much any hand except for QJ.
I'm not saying they'd fold with anything but the nuts, but you'd at least having folding equity.
The reason I don't like leading on the flop is because I'd hate to be called and miss the turn. One card to go, a 1800 chip pot and about the same left in your stack. Also, if you get raised, they've pot-committed themselves against your stack so you're put into a spot that your drawing to double up.
With 45 big blinds, I'd rather pick up another 12 big blinds and play from there than flip a coin to get to 90 big blinds. There is still a lot of play left and 90 big blinds doesn't have attraction it'll have later. That is why I'd try to get folding equity.
I think I just call the 300 raise here and see what comes on the turn. Because really, if you re-raise all-in, what are the two possible outcomes? One, you get called and you are a coin flip AT BEST (and there's really no reason to put it on the line on a coin flip when the blinds are that low). Two, he folds and you drag the 1350 in the pot, giving you 4230.
Will 4230 really put you in that much better a position to cash? I'm not familiar with the pace of that tournament's structure, but it doesn't seem like you were in any pressure at that point. Why not wait for a better spot?
I might have even chosen option A....this may have gotten you to the turn for as little as 300 chips. That's just a dangerous hand to play out of position, because of situations just like this one.
I don't mind your play with that flop. Your opponents raise was for the minimum and your all-in re-raise could well represent QJ or better yet QsJs. One important point that you've left out is the size of your opponents stacks.
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